1 free-agent outfielder that the SF Giants should avoid

Earlier this week, we looked at three free agents that the SF Giants should avoid. Well, we are going to add one more to that list. Despite the team's need in the outfield, the Giants would be wise to avoid signing Jurickson Profar.

1 free-agent outfielder that the SF Giants should avoid

It is hard to believe that Profar just completed his age-31 season. After all, he was once considered the top prospect in baseball by multiple outlets before debuting with the Texas Rangers as a 19-year-old prospect in 2012.

The switch-hitter struggled early in his career, posting a .708 OPS in parts of five seasons with the Texas Rangers before being shipped to the A's in a three-team trade in 2018. Since then, Profar has spent much of his time in the NL West. This includes a one-year stint with the Colorado Rockies and appearing in five seasons with the San Diego Padres.

The Giants have seen a lot of Profar over the years. He has never lived up to the hype that once made him a top prospect but he has turned into a reliable role player in recent seasons. That said, there have still been speed bumps along the way. This includes being released by the Rockies in 2023 and signing late in the offseason with the Padres last year.

The Padres entered the 2024 season with a lot of uncertainty in the outfield. Profar rewarded them with an unexpectedly strong season as he slashed .280/.380/.459 (139 wRC+) with 24 home runs, 85 RBI, and 94 runs in 668 plate appearances. This includes an 11.4 percent walk rate, 15.1 percent strikeout rate, and .179 ISO.

Profar earned an NL All-Star bid and down-ballot MVP votes. He set career highs in nearly every meaningful offensive category. This was due to a large improvement in his statcast data with a 91.1 MPH average exit velocity in 2024, up from 86.5 MPH in 2023. This led to a 44.2 percent hard-hit rate and 7.2 percent barrel rate.

I remember when Erick Dampier had his best season in a contract year with the Golden State Warriors in the early 2000's and my dad yelling at the TV, "Where has this guy been the entire time?!" Of course, he was totally fine with the Warriors losing the game by 20 points. That was what it was like to be a Warriors fan back then.

The point is, is Profar's breakout season sustainable? The free-agent outfielder is looking to earn a sizable payday on the heels of having his best year after being in the league for so long. Sure, there are plenty of players who figure it out later in their career and Profar could be the next in line.

While the Giants have a need in the outfield, investing in someone like Profar would be risky. When he is going, he is very much a quality everyday player as he proved in 2024. When he is not, he is closer to a role player. Of the top remaining free agents, it is fair to say that Profar's track record offers the widest range of outcomes.

If the Giants are going to upgrade the outfield, they need to be sure that they are getting an improvement over Mike Yastrzemski. The veteran outfielder has consistently been a solid glove with good power, albeit with a low ceiling. Despite the low ceiling, the Giants know what they are getting.

With Profar, teams do not know which version is going to show up. This is why any team might be hesitant to invest in a multi-year deal with the veteran outfielder. They are going to want to see Profar perform again like he did last year. While he could represent an upgrade for the Giants, it is too large of an unknown and one they should avoid.