Three reasons to believe in the San Francisco Giants
3. A big in-house addition and positive regression incoming
On top of all the improvements that have already been made to the roster, the San Francisco Giants could also be adding another top-of-the-rotation starter to the mix.
According to Kerry Crowley of The Mercury News, Johnny Cueto will begin facing live hitters on Wednesday, which is the final step before he begins a minor league rehab assignment.
While it remains to be seen what kind of pitcher Cueto will be upon returning, there’s no doubt he offers tremendous upside.
As for the players currently occupying the roster, several could be headed for some positive regression down the stretch.
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One thing that has been masked by the team’s recent hot streak is an ice-cold slump from Brandon Belt. From June 1 through July 22, he has hit just .253/.381/.351, and as a player with a career slugging percentage 100 points higher than that .351 mark, he’s bound to hit for more power down the stretch.
Likewise, the batted-ball data wasn’t kind to Brandon Crawford early in the year, but the tables have turned. Entering play on Tuesday, Baseball Savant’s batted-ball data suggested Crawford had been short-changed based on the contact he had made. The same can also be said of Buster Posey.
The Giants are also in a good position to upgrade at their only clear roster hole which is second base. There are a number of options if the Giants shift to buying at the deadline. They have the depth to move one of their top relievers without turning the bullpen into a weakness, and such a deal could bring back an MLB-ready contributor.
Even if they don’t make a move, incumbent second baseman Joe Panik has been one of the unluckiest hitters on the San Francisco Giants roster, according to Baseball Savant. His weighted-on base average (wOBA) is over 20 points below his expected wOBA, so there’s a reason to think he’s capable of at least a marginal uptick in production.
The Giants are now 17-3 in their last 20 games. Sure, the Seattle Mariners started this season 13-2, but don’t the exceptions prove the rule? Teams that win that much are good far more often than not.
Take a look at the rosters of the teams above the Giants in the standings. They may have younger star power, but they all have major holes in their pitching staffs. Most of them were expected to make big additions at the deadline, but if the Giants don’t sell, most of the best options evaporate.
In the end, the San Francisco Giants don’t need to be better than the Los Angeles Dodgers.
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They just need to claw their way into a wild-card spot. After that, anything is possible. After watching this team over the past few weeks, it’s easy to believe they can do just that.