Table 3: Pitchers with the most to show for their quality of contact allowed
Name wOBA xwOBA Difference
Travis Bergen .307 .398 -.091
Trevor Gott .248 .306 -.058
Sam Dyson .246 .281 -.035
Shaun Anderson .326 .355 -.029
Dereck Rodriguez .341 .367 -.026
League Avg. .322 .321 .001
Since xwOBA is not park adjusted, pitchers on the San Francisco Giants should have luck on their side, but these guys stand above the rest.
The median disparity for pitchers on the Giants was -.011 and the median disparity for hitters on the Giants was -.015. The average effect of Oracle Park probably falls somewhere in that range.
Bergen’s numbers are easily the most concerning on the list. Before going on the injured list, his numbers were mediocre at best and this suggests some massive regression to come.
While Dereck Rodriguez has a disparity less than half as large as Trevor Gott’s, he also has a much lower starting point. Rodriguez has already pitched himself out of the rotation and off the MLB roster altogether. If this suggests he’s been even less effective than his surface-level numbers, he’s probably not a long-term contributor.
Anderson’s numbers are also concerning, but since he’s still getting acclimated to life in the big leagues, I’m willing to trust that further refinement and development can offset his issues.
Dyson has quietly been one of the best relievers in baseball and that probably was always unsustainable. Still, even his expected numbers paint him as an effective setup man.
Gott is probably the most interesting case of any. It surprised me to see that he’s done such a good job limiting players getting on base against him (.248 wOBA). He’s been effective at times, but he holds a 4.21 ERA and has really only shown flashes.
While it’s clear from his numbers that the contact he’s allowed should have resulted in more runs, he’s also faced a lot of bad luck in other ways, most notably a 62.1 LOB%. He will be an interesting player to watch in the second half, especially if he gets more high-leverage work after the trade deadline.