San Francisco Giants Next Hall of Famer Will Be…
Barry Bonds
Bonds certainly has the best case. His numbers speak for themselves and we have written at length about why he deserves to be enshrined. His time in Pittsburgh alone merits consideration, but his 15 seasons in San Francisco made him a sure bet. However, because of all the performance enhancing drugs surrounding Bonds and others of his era, the voting process has become much more complicated.
Previous sure bets such as Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro and Roger Clemens have been passed over and their names have crowded the ballot far longer than anyone originally thought.
Sporting News Writer Graham Womack spoke with San Francisco Chronicle writer and Hall of Fame voter Susan Slusser on Bonds and the topic of PED’s in baseball. This is certainly an issue that is not going away.
All of this, however, seems to be changing for the better this year for Bonds and others. According to Ryan Thibodaux, who tracks public and anonymous ballots, Bonds has a 23% increase at the moment over last season’s voting of only 44%. With nearly 40% of the voters accounted for, Bonds is currently at 67%. Players need 75% for enshrinement, so it is unlikely that Bonds will get in this season. However, this bodes well for 2018 and 2019.
Jeff Kent, on the other hand, has only received 23 total votes so far, and has already been eliminated from consideration in 2017. He has earned enough votes to stay on the ballot for next season. Kent, the all-time home run king among second baseman, has not done well since he was added to the ballot four years ago. He has hovered around 15% of the vote each year. Players need to be on at least 5% of the ballots to remain.
@ 172 ballots/~39.5%:
— Ryan Thibodaux, Ex-A's Fan (@NotMrTibbs) January 5, 2017
Bags 92%
Raines 92%
Pudge 83%
Vlad 75%
Hoff 72%
Edgar 69%
BB 69%
RC 68%
Moose 62%
Schill 54%https://t.co/PQK7gmI3NQ
Based on Thibodaux’s projections, it would appear Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines and Ivan Rodriguez are the likeliest candidates to enter Cooperstown. Vladimir Guerrero is right at 75% at the moment. Jorge Posada has not received enough votes to stay on the ballot. If all five are removed after this season, that should help both Bonds and Kent.
Current rules allow for a maximum of 10 candidates on a ballot and that small number has made some voters leave off worthy candidates. This is why Kent’s candidacy is still a tough one with so few voters selecting him right now. Jay Jaffe projected Kent on the outside looking in as well in his JAWS projections earlier this off-season.
It doesn’t get much better heading into 2018, Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Scott Rolen, Andruw Jones, Johan Santana, and Johnny Damon will all be first time candidates.